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Articles by Martin Gilman

opinion Martin Gilman

Can Russia's Economy Recover in 2016? (Op-Ed)

A year ago it seemed that the Russian economy was in free-fall. Despite everything, 2015 saw the economy stabilize. But what about next year?

Structural Decline or a Cyclical Trough?

Contrary to earlier expectations, the Russian economy has been a surprising disappointment in terms of growth so far this year. As we can appreciate...

The Stage-Managed St. Petersburg Photo Op

In St. Petersburg last weekend, Russia hosted a meeting of leaders from the 20 largest economies in the world, the Group of 20, as well as other...

No Threat of Recession, But Few Are Cheering

There has been considerable hand-wringing about Russian economic performance and prospects in recent months. Rumors have been circulating of a recession...

Like It or Not, Russia Is a Global Financial Power

Sometimes a slight, even if it results from an error of omission, can have unintended consequences.

Nabiullina Will Be Superior Central Bank Head

Last week's announcement by President Vladimir Putin that he was appointing Elvira Nabiullina as the new head of the Central Bank surprised many observers...

The Global Currency War Heats Up in Moscow

Among the finance ministers and сentral bank governors converging on Moscow at the end of this week, at least some will really wish they could been...
opinion Martin Gilman

Why Russians and the World Dislike the Ruble

Russians have long had an ambivalent relationship with the ruble. Even now, Russian companies and individuals by and large seem to prefer to save...

Russia Overtakes Portugal – and Spain Is Next

Some cliches bear repetition. A relatively recent one, in reference to the global economy, is how the tables have turned. As we know, once relatively...

How Politics and Perceptions Trump Economics

If you were to measure the recent economic performance of the world's major countries — say, those that comprise the Group of 20 — you might be...

New Government Faces Old Problems

A longstanding platitude shared by both the Kremlin as well as domestic and foreign analysts is the need for Russia to diversify its economy away...

Putin's Pipedreams Recycled

In the days following the inauguration of President-elect Vladimir Putin on May 7, he will appoint a new government under future Prime Minister Dmitry...

Why Putin Should Keep His Old Team – for Now

In many countries the post-election transition period between governments can be fraught with uncertainty, as seasoned politicians and political appointees...

Europe's Debt Problems Cannot Be Ignored

The echoes of Russia's debt default in 1998 — which is now, fortunately, of mere historical interest as seen from Moscow — seem to reverberate...

Economics and Politics Don't Mix

Clearly economics is a social science. Some economists would like to assume laboratory-like conditions. But the period since the implosion of the Lehman...

Signs of an Island of Stability — for Now

Upon leaving Cannes this past weekend after two days of fruitless discussions at the Group of 20 Summit, President Dmitry Medvedev was no doubt in good...

Russia’s ‘Island of Stability’ Could Sink Again

It is unlikely that anyone who follows the news is unaware that the global economy has entered "a dangerous new phase" as Christine Lagarde, the managing...

Filling Kudrin's Shoes Will Be Hard

Poor Anton Siluanov, Russia's new acting finance minister. Siluanov, following in the footsteps of Alexei Kudrin, who resigned a week ago, is not to be...

On Inflation, Russia Not Out of the Woods Yet

No one knows yet how and when what Harvard professor Ken Rogoff calls the "great contraction" will end. How can Russia, which is so vulnerable to oil...

Better a Technocrat at the IMF

It will be interesting to see what role President Dmitry Medvedev decides to play at the Group of Eight summit in Deauville, France. Of the many...

A New Member and More Problems for BRICS

As President Dmitry Medvedev sits down with his BRICS counterparts on Thursday at their third annual summit in Sanya, on China's Hainan Island, they...

Global Openness Is a Double-Edged Sword

I recently came across an unexpected piece of comparative analysis by a former IMF colleague, Jonathan Anderson. It brought home how Russia's uniqueness...

Sailing to Portugal’s GDP Hits Some Turbulence

Most leaders refrain from long-term speculation about their economies for the simple reason that it is hard enough to have a clear idea of growth projections...

Golden Days of Being a Net Saver Are Over

Sometimes through a combination of good policies and some good luck, countries may acquire safety margins as insulation from the financial vicissitudes...

A Sinking Feeling at the Group of 20 Summit

Even low expectations can be disappointed. President Dmitry Medvedev and the other Group of 20 leaders, who are in Seoul for their fifth summit in two...

Russia Muddling Through Uncharted Waters

Over the weekend, the world’s financial leaders met in Washington for the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting. There were many pious speeches...

Inflation Could Trip New Exchange-Rate Crisis

A ruble exchange-rate crisis in two or three years is not inevitable, but if inflation is allowed to accelerate and real interest rates — adjusting for...