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Articles by Chris Weafer

opinion Chris Weafer

Six Reasons Russia Does Not Want a Higher Oil Price (Op-ed)

At first glance that certainly seems like a crazy position to take
opinion Chris Weafer

Will This Russian Winter Be a Cold One for Investors? (Op-Ed)

For much of the past three years it has generally been right for strategic and portfolio investors in Russia to consider the glass to be half empty...
opinion Chris Weafer

What's in the Cards For the Ruble?

Sanctions will be the dominant talking point next year, but politics and sanctions are not the major driver of the ruble.
opinion Chris Weafer

Where Is the Ruble Going Next? (Op-Ed)

Should you book your New Year holiday now, or see what happens with the ruble? Columnist Chris Weafer explains.
opinion Chris Weafer

Keeping an Eye on the Russian Financial Market

Those promoting good news from Russia are focused on the fact that Russia's equity indices are among the best performing in the world this year.
opinion Chris Weafer

No End in Sight to the Ruble's Downward Slide

That Russian GDP contracted by 4.6 percent in the second quarter comes as no surprise. That is a preliminary estimate and may well end up closer to a...
opinion Chris Weafer

How Much Have Sanctions Really Hurt Russia?

Next month marks one year since the beginning of the more serious phase of Western sanctions against the Russian economy and Moscow's retaliatory...
opinion Chris Weafer

Where Are Oil Prices and the Ruble Going Next?

The strong rally in the oil price over the past four months has confounded most forecasters. Instead of continuing the late 2014 slide to test the 2009...
opinion Chris Weafer

Like It or Not, Russian Economy Needs the West

The May 9 parade through Red Square traditionally celebrates the end of the Great Patriotic War and this year, being the 70th anniversary of the...
opinion Chris Weafer

Is the Iran Deal Good or Bad News for Russia?

It is far too early to assume last week's framework agreement between Iran and the six world powers will lead to a permanent deal governing how Iran...
opinion Chris Weafer

Is the Worst Over for the Russian Economy?

For investors, business owners and everybody else with an interest or involvement in the Russian economy, this is now a period of waiting;
opinion Chris Weafer

Can the Ruble Maintain Its Recent Recovery?

Over the past four weeks the ruble's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar has recovered by over 12 percent to a rate of 60.5 at the end of last...
opinion Chris Weafer

Investors Are Cautiously Optimistic About Russia

While the economic indicators are set to worsen considerably over the next few months, investors have become a lot more sanguine about Russia risk...
opinion Chris Weafer

Russian Economy Will Rally, But Won't Boom

There is currently a lot of noise about the Russian economy and almost all of it is bad. Many commentators predict that a catastrophe lies ahead...
opinion Chris Weafer

The Upsides to Russia's Ruble Collapse


2014 wasn't exactly a good year for Russia, but this could be beneficial as it could force future change, writes columnist Chris Weafer.
opinion Chris Weafer

South Stream Cancellation Hits Europe Hardest

Russia's plan to build the South Stream natural gas pipeline to Europe was a bad commercial decision.
opinion Chris Weafer

Russia's Future Jeopardized by OPEC's Decline

Oil ministers from member states of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet in Vienna on Thursday to try to formulate...
opinion Chris Weafer

What's Next for the Ruble?

The future of the ruble may be uncertain, but one thing's for sure, the actions of the Kremlin will matter a lot more than the actions of the Central...
opinion Chris Weafer

Oil and U.S. Dollar Will Decide Ruble's Fate

On Wednesday, the ruble's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar closed below 40, for many people a psychological line in the sand. The ruble has...
opinion Chris Weafer

Ruble Is the Latest Casualty in Ukraine Crisis

August is traditionally the month when something unexpected, and usually with a long-lasting legacy, is likely to occur in Russia.
opinion Chris Weafer

Putin's Russia Will Always Stretch the WTO's Rules

Two years ago this month, Russia was formally admitted into the World Trade Organization (WTO) after almost 19 years of fractious negotiations. Since...
opinion Chris Weafer

Russia Has Earned Its Place in the BRICS Bank

In 2001 Goldman Sachs strategist Jim O'Neill first proposed the acronym BRIC to group together Brazil, Russia, India and China, four of the world's...
opinion Chris Weafer

Russia Reaps Rewards of Middle East Misery

In the midst of so much economic uncertainty and questions over how Russia will be able to attract the volume of foreign investment it desperately...
opinion Chris Weafer

It's the Economy, Mr. President

Putin can't hold on to the Crimea euphoria forever. He will face serious political problems if inflation rises, disposable incomes fall and employment...
opinion Chris Weafer

Russia Needs to Pivot East and West

A simplistic solution to Russia's increasingly difficult relationship with Western countries to turn East, but it can ill afford to ignore the West...
opinion Chris Weafer

Anybody's Guess When Politics Drive The Economy

Ever since March 1, when the first steps toward Russia annexing Crimea were set in motion, economists were united in the opinion that the Kremlin's...
opinion Chris Weafer

Why Russia Isn't Afraid of U.S. Gas Exports

During his recent speech in Brussels, U.S. President Barack Obama said the U.S. could soon become a major supplier of gas to Europe and allow countries...
opinion Chris Weafer

Crimean Crisis Will Exacerbate Capital Flight

The real fallout from a prolonged conflict in Ukraine will be self-inflicted. It will likely result in a drop in much-needed investment capital and an...
opinion Chris Weafer

Pity the Banker Who Lives for a Fat Bonus

Two weeks ago, the 7:25 a.m. train from one of London's outer eastern suburbs screeched to a halt near the Liverpool Street station located in the...
opinion Chris Weafer

Two Sides to Every Weak Ruble

The old formula of a strong oil plus positive growth equaling strong ruble is not working.
opinion Chris Weafer

Still Betting on Oil Conflicts

If there had been no internal conflicts in the Middle East or Africa, the price of Brent would have likely plunged to $80 per barrel by the end of last...
opinion Chris Weafer

Khodorkovsky Pardon Bodes Well for Economy

A great deal has been written recently about the early release from prison of former Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Many commentators have concluded...
opinion Chris Weafer

Russia's Path to Progress Goes Through OECD

Gaining membership in the exclusive OECD club would help bring around investors who are reluctant, or even dismissive, of the very idea of coming to Russia...
opinion Chris Weafer

Trying to Save a Sputtering Economy

To boost long-term growth, Russia has to create a predictable business climate, achieve greater efficiency and diversify its economy. But the more...
opinion Chris Weafer

Losing No. 1 Oil Spot Is Least of Russia's Troubles

In recent weeks, there has been a spate of reports again highlighting the rapid increase in U.S. oil and gas production, and the potential for much...
opinion Chris Weafer

Russia's Economy: Not as Insulated as It Thinks

What happens in the rest of the world matters a great deal to the Russian economy and to the capital markets. The strength of global trade is a key...
opinion Chris Weafer

Russia's Strong Balance Sheet Only Goes So Far

To achieve real growth, Russia must institute correct spending and incentive policies.
opinion Chris Weafer

Terraforming Russia's Economy

Adventurous investors such as Blackstone or Gulf investment funds help "terraform" Russia, making it "habitable" for investment. They pave the way for more...
opinion Chris Weafer

Why Russia Should Be Wary of the Fed

If the Federal Reserve curtails its quantitative easing program, it will have an impact on the wealth of Russians.
opinion Chris Weafer

WTO's Tough Medicine Is Good for Russia

History shows that if a foreign competitor makes a better widget and cheaper than you can, lobbying to have the foreign widget blocked provides only...
opinion Chris Weafer

Investor Concerns for August 2013

Every August in Russia is interesting and scary in equal measure.
opinion Chris Weafer

Shaking Off That 'Cheap for a Reason' Label

One of the reasons cited by government officials to explain the recent scaling back of the privatization program is because Russian equities are far...
opinion Chris Weafer

Less Privatization Means More Economic Woes

Few were surprised when the Russian government announced last week that the program to privatize state assets had been considerably scaled back.
opinion Chris Weafer

It Will Take More Than JPMorgan to Get an A Rating

It is clear why raising its credit rating has become a top priority for Russia. Above all, it would make it easier and cheaper to access debt markets...
opinion Chris Weafer

Amnesty Could Boost the Investment Climate

Russia is finally getting serious about tackling the three biggest reasons why domestic investors leave Russia and why foreigners avoid it.
opinion Chris Weafer

No Business as Usual for Russia in Venezuela

Despite assurances from government officials in Caracas that it will be business as usual after the death of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez last...
opinion Chris Weafer

What the U.S. Oil Revolution Means for Russia

One reason investors are wary of Russia is rosy oil price predictions. Historically, long-term oil predictions have almost always been wrong.
opinion Chris Weafer

Why the Kremlin Needs BP

The Kremlin, BP and Rosneft come out as big winners in the deal. But BP and Rosneft investors and the Russian business climate might suffer.
opinion Chris Weafer

Lessons for Investors From TNK-BP

The highly depressed valuations on the stock market today would have you believe that Russia is a sort of a hybrid of a Las Vegas roulette wheel with an...
opinion Chris Weafer

How to De-Spook Investors

Political uncertainty, now affecting almost all of the world's major economies, has combined with economic unpredictability to create an even more uncertain...
opinion Chris Weafer

A 'To Do' List for Growth in Putin's Next Term

The election is over, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will be the next president, and the stock market has recovered all of the ground that it lost during...
opinion Chris Weafer

Economic Glasnost

Twenty years after Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s policy of glasnost brought about the end of the Soviet Union, the government of President Dmitry...
opinion Chris Weafer

Doing Business Under a New Mayor

There is nothing intuitive in saying that former Mayor Yury Luzhkov’s successor will have much better relations with the federal government than he or...