President Vladimir Putin is building a system of increasingly centralized control, in which he directly manages the government, influential research group Minchenko Consulting said in a report published Wednesday.
The report analyzed the first year of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's government, dividing the Cabinet into Medvedev's team, which includes Justice Minister Alexander Konovalov and Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, and those who owe their loyalty directly to Putin, such as Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
The report concludes that Putin's declared goal of tackling corruption, evidenced in attempts to sideline Akhmed Bilalov, who formerly headed the North Caucasus Resorts project, and the investigation into alleged embezzlement at the Skolkovo innovation center, has severely weakened Medvedev's position.
Both North Caucasus Resorts and Skolkovo are seen to fall within Medvedev's sphere of influence.
But despite these grievances, Medvedev has no reason to be anxious, according to the report, because the weaker he is, the more likely he will suit Putin's system of centralized control.
Given this framework, the most likely scenario is that Russia's development over the next few years will be characterized by sluggish stagnation, the report said, adding that the only way that Russia could be jolted out of its inertia would be if social stability markedly deteriorates.
That could lead someone like Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko to form a new government or, were the economy to falter, reformist liberals such as former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin or billionaire politician Mikhail Prokhorov could come to power, the research group said.
A Message from The Moscow Times:
Dear readers,
We are facing unprecedented challenges. Russia's Prosecutor General's Office has designated The Moscow Times as an "undesirable" organization, criminalizing our work and putting our staff at risk of prosecution. This follows our earlier unjust labeling as a "foreign agent."
These actions are direct attempts to silence independent journalism in Russia. The authorities claim our work "discredits the decisions of the Russian leadership." We see things differently: we strive to provide accurate, unbiased reporting on Russia.
We, the journalists of The Moscow Times, refuse to be silenced. But to continue our work, we need your help.
Your support, no matter how small, makes a world of difference. If you can, please support us monthly starting from just $2. It's quick to set up, and every contribution makes a significant impact.
By supporting The Moscow Times, you're defending open, independent journalism in the face of repression. Thank you for standing with us.
Remind me later.
