DUSHANBE, Tajikistan — Tajiks will vote on Sunday in parliamentary elections that are certain to strengthen President Imomali Rakhmon's 17-year hold on power.
The West is concerned that discontent in Tajikistan, spurred by an economic crisis, could lead to unrest in the Muslim nation, which lies on a supply route for NATO forces fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Tajikistan, the poorest nation in the former Soviet Union and Afghanistan’s northern neighbor, holds parliamentary elections Sunday expected to be won by supporters of President Imomali Rakhmon, in power since 1992.
Following are some key facts about Tajikistan and the vote.
- Slightly larger than Greece, Tajikistan borders Afghanistan, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
- The Pamir Mountains, topping 7,000 meters and billed by Tajiks as the “Roof of the World,” make up more than 90 percent of its territory.
- Tajikistan has a population of 7.5 million. Tajiks are ethnically akin to Persians and their language is similar to Farsi. About a million people, roughly half the work force, work abroad, mainly in Russia as construction workers. The average monthly salary is the equivalent of $70.
- Tajikistan’s 3.5 million eligible voters are due to elect a new 63-seat lower chamber of parliament from candidates representing eight political parties.
- The main contenders are Rakhmon’s People’s Democratic Party, the pro-government Communists and the opposition Islamic Revival Party. All of them hold seats in the current assembly.
- Forty-one seats are split between deputies elected in single constituencies on the basis of a winner-takes-all system. Twenty-two seats are divided between parties that receive more than 5 percent of the popular vote.
- Western observers have never recognized elections in Tajikistan as free and fair. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has about 170 observers on the ground.
- After the Soviet collapse, civil war broke out in 1992. The five-year conflict claimed 100,000 lives.
- In 1997, Tajikistan’s Russian-backed government signed a peace agreement with the United Tajik Opposition, led by Islamic rebels some of whom later set up the Islamic Revival Party.
- Tajikistan was a staunch supporter of the U.S. “war on terror” after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and is now part of a supply route for U.S. forces fighting in Afghanistan.
- Rakhmon became Tajikistan’s de facto ruler in 1992 and was formally elected president in 1994. He won a second presidential election in 1999. In 2003, a referendum enabled him to stand for another two consecutive seven-year terms.
- Tajikistan also elects local councils on Sunday. Rakhmon’s elder son, Rustami Imomali, is running for the legislature of the capital, Dushanbe.
- Tajikistan is the main export route for Afghan heroin to Russia and Europe. Heroin costs about $1,000 per kilogram at the Tajik border but soars to $100,000 to $300,000 per kilogram when the drug reaches Western Europe.
— Reuters
Perched in the ragged mountains of southern Central Asia, Tajikistan is the poorest country in the former Soviet Union and has never held an election judged free and fair by Western monitors.
On Sunday, Rakhmon's People's Democratic Party looks set to win most of the seats in the 63-seat Majlisi Namoyandagon, or lower house of the parliament, where the opposition Islamic Revival Party holds only two seats.
Already struggling to make ends meet with an average monthly salary of $70, ordinary Tajiks have grown increasingly disenchanted with Rakhmon's rule, but their frustration remains muted in a country where public criticism of the state is taboo.
A sense of stagnation has added to widespread apathy among the country's 3.5 million eligible voters in the run-up to a vote marked by almost no political campaigning or public debate.
"Imomali will hand-pick all the candidates himself," Gulomdjon Sobirov, a 72-year-old pensioner, said in the capital, Dushanbe, which is adorned with billboards showing a smiling Rakhmon and promoting the ruling party.
"He may, of course, decide to give two or three seats to critics. But if he decides against it, parliament will contain only his supporters," Sobirov said.
Renewed violence in Afghanistan, where a record number of civilians and foreign troops were killed in 2009, has rekindled global interest in Tajikistan, which also lies on one of the main drug trafficking routes from Afghanistan to Europe.
More than 10 years after its own bloody civil war, Tajikistan is home to a potentially explosive mixture of social and religious tensions, its economy increasingly reliant on remittances sent by Tajiks working as laborers abroad.
The inflow of remittances, one of the country's key sources of foreign currency, dropped almost by a third in 2009.
The opposition says some of its activists have been detained and questioned by the police ahead of the vote. Five private newspapers were sued for libel this month in a case that the United States has criticized as an attack on press freedom.
"We have conveyed our concerns to the government of Tajikistan and urged it to ensure that the judiciary is not used as a tool to harass independent media or stifle free speech," the U.S. Embassy said in a statement this week.
Rakhmon's 23-year-old son, Rustami, is running in a city council election Sunday that coincides with the parliamentary vote, sparking talk that the 57-year-old leader is thinking about a possible succession plan.
Officials have made clear that they are not interested in copying the Western democratic model.
"Tajikistan does not plan to emulate the process of democratic development adopted by other countries, be that the United States, Europe or Asia," said Mukhibullo Dadajanov, a senior Central Election Commission official. "[Tajikistan] has its own way chosen by its own people."
A Message from The Moscow Times:
Dear readers,
We are facing unprecedented challenges. Russia's Prosecutor General's Office has designated The Moscow Times as an "undesirable" organization, criminalizing our work and putting our staff at risk of prosecution. This follows our earlier unjust labeling as a "foreign agent."
These actions are direct attempts to silence independent journalism in Russia. The authorities claim our work "discredits the decisions of the Russian leadership." We see things differently: we strive to provide accurate, unbiased reporting on Russia.
We, the journalists of The Moscow Times, refuse to be silenced. But to continue our work, we need your help.
Your support, no matter how small, makes a world of difference. If you can, please support us monthly starting from just $2. It's quick to set up, and every contribution makes a significant impact.
By supporting The Moscow Times, you're defending open, independent journalism in the face of repression. Thank you for standing with us.
Remind me later.