Appealing to Germans' anti-war mood -- the zeitgeist, or spirit of the times -- was crucial to Schroeder's re-election in September. Now, with prospects bleak for his party in two state elections Sunday, both domestic and global politics are hardening his resolve.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld called Germany "a problem" and derided it as part of the "old Europe" in answer to a question about opposition to an Iraq war by U.S. allies.
But the German position is in line with a growing peace movement. Thousands of activists marched in German cities and blockaded a NATO base last weekend, carrying banners saying "no blood for oil" and "war is murder."
If Sunday's state votes in Hesse and Lower Saxony were an anti-war referendum, Schroeder's party would coast to victory. Yet Germans remain skeptical that he can muster the stamina for the most critical domestic task -- shaking the cobwebs out of Europe's biggest economy so it can regain its formidable power.
Polls show his Social Democrats trailing in the elections. As it did in September, Schroeder's party has grabbed the anti-war theme and run with it. Opposition to war has grown in recent weeks along with fears that the conflict cannot be stopped. A ZDF television poll Friday showed 59 percent against German participation in any Iraq conflict, up from 53 percent in December. The telephone survey of 1,133 people had a margin of error of 3 percent.
Germans' sense of foreboding -- rooted in revulsion at two world wars their country started last century -- has also deepened because Germany is set to chair the UN Security Council in February, thrusting it into a critical diplomatic role that could decide between war and peace.
Again, the public's message to Schroeder is clear: A poll last week found 89 percent support for his refusal to underwrite an authorization of war on Iraq.
"What we do and don't do is decided in Berlin and nowhere else," Schroeder shouted at a recent campaign event, drawing appreciative whistles and the biggest applause of the evening.
"We will not let up in our efforts to resolve this conflict without a war," Schroeder said Wednesday, the day after U.S. President George W. Bush laid out his case for war with Iraq in his State of the Union address.
Unable to match Schroeder's emotional appeal, the opposition Christian Democrats are attacking him on the economy. They sense that even in the middle of the Iraq crisis, Germans will seize the chance to slap the chancellor for his post-election tax hikes and his failure to cure stubbornly high unemployment and near-zero growth.
But while his party may suffer a setback, it is Schroeder who remains in touch with the larger themes touching the German soul -- no to war and no to the United States.
"The man needs to reach out to people's hearts," said retired accountant Asmus Janssen, 60. "And he's still doing it."
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