Obama's Chance to Act on 2005 Impressions

On his first trip to Russia four years ago, Barack Obama, a junior Democratic senator from Illinois, was detained for several hours at the Perm airport after a U.S. delegation that he was with refused to allow local border guards check their airplane.

Senior Republican Senator Richard Lugar, who headed the delegation, harshly criticized the Aug. 28, 2005, delay, saying at the time that the incident "illustrates a dysfunctional state where the left and right hand don't know what either is doing and people are enforcing their whims of the day without deference to the world."

But Obama struck a friendlier note three months later when he reported to the Senate about the trip, a tour of biological weapon sites in the former Soviet Union.

"Thinking of the Russians more as partners does mean being more thoughtful, respectful and consistent about what we say and what we do," he said.

Obama will get a chance to put those words into action next week when he comes to Moscow for his first official visit as president. But former Russian and U.S. diplomats are voicing doubt that Obama's talks with Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will lead to a diplomatic breakthrough.

Obama and Medvedev discussed by telephone late Tuesday all the items of the visit's agenda, including strategic arms reduction, and agreed to speed up the work of negotiations teams fashioning a new arms control treaty to replace the Cold War-era one that expires in December.

Even the Kremlin's announcement of the phone conversation was carefully worded, saying the upcoming summit "will open the door to more dynamism, to building a more creative atmosphere in bilateral relations and to getting to know each other better."

"I don't expect the two presidents to reset relations but rather restructure them and make a framework for future relations. I don't know what the specifics of the framework might be, however," said James Collins, a former U.S. ambassador to Moscow and now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

One of the biggest problems between the two countries is Moscow's demand that Washington scrap plans to install elements of a missile defense shield in Central Europe, an initiative proposed by the administration of former President George W. Bush but put on hold by Obama. Medvedev has tried to tie the shield to the new arms reduction treaty, while Obama has indicated that he might abandon the shield in exchange for help curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions.

In the meantime, both sides have demonstrated their preparedness to cut the number of nuclear warheads in their arsenals. While the negotiators remain tight-lipped on the details, both U.S. and Russian defense analysts agreed that the number of warheads will be slashed to about 1,500 by each country. They also said Obama would not give up the missile shield during the Moscow talks.

"The Americans are working on a review of their nuclear capabilities, and this will go on until the end of the year at least," said Pavel Zolotaryov, a retired general and deputy director of the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies.

Another reason why Russia's demand will not be met is that the shield also involves the interests of Poland and the Czech Republic, where elements of the shield are to be placed, Zolotaryov said.

Russia and NATO member Poland have long sparred bitterly over their colonial and Soviet past.

Russia's relations with NATO and the related issue of Ukraine's and Georgia's bids to join the alliance will also be discussed at the summit, but Obama will not be as aggressive as Bush over NATO entry for those countries, said Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine now with the Brookings Institution, a think tank.

"Obama will talk about the Ukraine and Georgia sparingly. It is a point of friction," Pifer said. "Still, I hope in President Obama's speech that he talks about American values and the way in which he hopes Russia will develop."

Obama will give a commencement address at the New Economic School on Tuesday.

Agreements, however, could be reached on Afghanistan, a point where the interests of the two countries converge, said Vladimir Yevseyev, a security analyst with the Institute of World Economy and International Relations.

Russia's preparedness to approve the transit of NATO military cargo over its territory and its acceptance of the Americans using a Kyrgyz air base are a good foundation for talks on more contentious issues, Yevseyev said.

But any Kremlin attempt "to load too many side issues onto the arms reduction talks may result in the Americans just walking away from negotiations," he said.

On a highly optimistic note, Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, said he expected that the visit would raise U.S.-Russian relations to a new level. "Russia originally was not a high foreign-policy priority for the new U.S. administration," he wrote in a commentary published on the opinion pages of The Moscow Times this week. "However, I think that will change after the two presidents meet face to face in Moscow."

Yet Russia will probably remain a secondary issue for the White House in comparison with priorities such as the Middle East, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and climate change, said Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Although the general expectations for the summit are low, the analysts brand it as a step forward from recent times when the rhetoric between the two countries was reminiscent of the Cold War. "Anything but failure is a success for U.S.-Russian relations," said Andrei Kortunov, the Moscow head of the New Eurasia think tank. "Change is not overnight."

Issues and disputes

The main issues and disputes affecting ties between Moscow and Washington ahead of President Barack Obama??s visit with President Dmitry Medvedev: Strategic Arms Control The Obama administration has made reaching a new nuclear arms control pact with Russia the cornerstone of its effort to improve relations between the two largest atomic powers. Obama and Medvedev agreed in April to move quickly on negotiations to replace the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which expires in December. The leaders are expected during next week??s summit to announce progress and perhaps a framework for a new accord. It is expected to go beyond current arrangements that commit both sides to cutting their arsenals to between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads apiece by 2012. U.S. arms control experts predict that the new target could be as low as 1,500 warheads. A final deal could be hampered by Russia??s bid to link the nuclear talks to its demands that Washington drop plans to develop an anti-missile shield in Europe. Russia sees the system as undermining its security. Washington says it aimed at intercepting missiles from hostile states such as Iran. Georgia Russia??s war against Georgia last year caused the worst rift with the West since the Soviet collapse in 1991. Though strains have eased somewhat, Russia remains at odds with the United States and its allies over Moscow??s recognition of independence for Georgia??s two breakaway regions. Russia, which has kept troops in the area after crushing Georgia??s bid to retake separatist South Ossetia, was angered by recent NATO war games in Georgia proper and has blocked renewal of an OSCE peace monitoring mission. Washington insists that the West will not accept a return to a Soviet-style ??sphere of influence?¤ on Russia??s borders. Still, the United States and Russia have an interest in keeping lingering tensions over Georgia from spilling over into other areas of potential cooperation. NATO Expansion Russia fiercely opposed proposals ?§ spearheaded by the former U.S. administration ?§ to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. Both states are in a region where the Kremlin says it has ??privileged interests?¤ and wants to prevent further encroachment by Western powers. NATO has said Georgia and Ukraine will join eventually but has declined to put them on an immediate path to membership. Mindful that some other NATO allies are reluctant to see the issue antagonize Moscow, Obama has taken a more cautious approach than former President George W. Bush to any future eastward expansion by NATO. Iran The Obama administration wants Russia??s help in curbing Iran??s nuclear ambitions. But Moscow, a key trading partner with Tehran, has often been reluctant to go along with sanctions pushed by the West, seeing them as counterproductive. Obama can be expected to assure Russian leaders about his efforts to engage Tehran diplomatically while urging a united front to pressure Iran, especially in the aftermath of a disputed presidential election there. Moscow has expressed doubts about Western accusations, denied by Tehran, that Iran is actively seeking to develop nuclear weapons. So analysts hold out little hope for a meeting of the minds on this issue in Moscow. Afghanistan Expectations are high in Moscow that Russian leaders could announce that they will allow transit of more U.S. military cargo, including lethal supplies, via Russian territory to U.S.-led forces fighting a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan. Russia, still haunted by the Soviet Union??s failed invasion of Afghanistan, shares the United States?? interest in seeing stability there ?§ if for no other reason than preventing the spread of Islamist insurgency along its own borders. Moscow recently relented in its opposition to a U.S. deal with neighboring Kyrgyzstan for continued use of a Central Asian air base as a crucial refueling point for U.S. aircraft in NATO operations in Afghanistan. Increased Russian cooperation would give a boost to Obama??s new strategy of shifting the U.S. military focus from the Iraq war to Afghanistan. Russia??s WTO Bid There could also be unease at the summit over the latest twist in Russia??s 16-year-old bid to join the World Trade Organization. Moscow recently accused the United States and European Union of making unreasonable demands for its entry and insisted it would now join only in partnership with Belarus and Kazakhstan. The move, which caught Washington by surprise, was seen not only as a reflection of Russian frustration with the slow pace of WTO accession talks but as a sign that Moscow may not view it as important a priority as it once did.

?§ Reuters