Countdown to Global Zero

The Cold War is over, but the nuclear deterrent remains. This is largely because the West and Russia never fully seized the opportunity that arose 20 years ago. It was a chance for lasting peace, but the two sides opted in the end for a truce.

Given the circumstances, the very idea of a world without nuclear weapons looks like a utopian vision. In other words, it is something that is possible in principle but difficult to realize in the real world. But the world does change. Our idea of a world without nuclear weapons has “gripped the masses,” to borrow a term from the Marxist lexicon.

It is clear that the struggle against the proliferation of these weapons must ultimately lead to their destruction. The coexistence of nuclear weapons alongside a regime of nonproliferation is a legacy of the Cold War. Today, many states consider that legacy as key to their security. But there are uninvited and unwanted guests now knocking at the door to the nuclear club. As long as old members continue to hold these weapons in their arsenals, their numbers will likely expand. Today, at least 30 countries possess several hundred reactors for industrial and research purposes. It only takes a 1,000-mega-

watt reactor to manufacture enough plutonium in a single year to produce 50 warheads. This is highly dangerous because those who are keen to possess their own nuclear weapons have little experience in being able to store them or in guaranteeing that they won’t use them. This increases the ominous possibility that sooner or later these weapons will be used. Anton Chekhov wrote in the 19th century that if there is a rifle hanging on the wall in the theater on stage then at some point during the play the rifle will be fired. The same situation applies today. The nuclear rifle has been hanging over the whole world since the days of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Over the past year, the work of Global Zero has proceeded amid the “reset” in U.S.-Russian relations. Inspired by circumstances, the first item on our agenda was the question of disarmament and the follow-up treaty to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or START. In September, the United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution calling for nuclear disarmament. Global Zero declared its initiative for a step-by-step elimination of nuclear weapons. Today, Global Zero unites more than 200 world leaders. These individuals are former heads of state, defense ministers, foreign ministers and senior military, civilian and religious leaders. Our mission requires the widest support. Already more than 140,000 citizens from all over the world have signed the Global Zero declaration, and in early 2010 a documentary film about the nuclear threat, “Countdown to Zero.” will debute at the Sundance Film Festival. In February, we will hold a Global Zero summit in Paris, where we will discuss the next steps toward the elimination of all weapons and projects related to the education and informational support of our initiative. This gives all the more reason to believe that a nuclear-free world will be the No. 1 issue for the coming year.

But we have an enormous amount of work ahead of us — first and foremost among the members of the nuclear club. A nuclear-free world can be a reality if the leaders of these countries unite in support of our initiative. We also need the help of civil institutions. They can offer a unique form of diplomacy, which is often better able than official diplomatic channels, to engage in a frank discussion on the issue of nuclear disarmament.

But the main condition for the advancement of the Global Zero platform remains the positions of the two main nuclear powers — the United States and Russia. They can set the example for other members of the nuclear club. After all, the very idea of a “global nuclear zero” at a government level was originally laid out by the United States and the Soviet Union. At the summit in Reykjavik in 1986, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and U.S. President Ronald Reagan were prepared to destroy their nuclear arsenals by 1996. Unfortunately, a lack of trust from both sides and the U.S. insistence on going forward with its Strategic Defense Initiative prevented these good intentions from materializing. During the April summit in Moscow, there was a bit of deja vu as we once again heard U.S. and Russian presidents pledging their intention of “moving toward a nuclear-free world.”

We wholeheartedly welcome this declaration and are ready to start work. We have a concrete plan for the phased elimination of all nuclear weapons together with the appropriate enforcement and control measures. We are thus ready to add new substance to U.S.-Russian relations with fresh ideas and arguments. Today, we have presidents in Russia and in the United States who are not of the old mindset of confrontation. They both understand that our countries must work together first and foremost in the interests of global security. This cooperation between the two nuclear powers is crucial as part of the ultimate goal of providing the complete prohibition of nuclear weapons.

We understand that there are many obstacles on the road to achieving a “global zero” in nuclear arms. But the fact that the replacement treaty for START, which will lower the number of nuclear warheads and their delivery vehicles even further, will be signed in early 2010 inspires much hope.

Mikhail Margelov is chairman of the International Affairs Committee in the Federation Council.