State-controlled companies and banks should limit their foreign borrowing, Central Bank First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said Monday, signaling concerns that further liabilities could hamper the country’s recovery from recession.
“The leadership of these [state-controlled companies] should get direct orders aimed at limiting foreign borrowing,” Ulyukayev told reporters, adding that the Central Bank can also use its own instruments such as mandatory reserve requirements.
Recent improvements in global liquidity, combined with rising crude prices, have disquieted Russian officials concerned that the country’s cash-starved enterprises will turn to foreign money again to finance their activities — just as they did prior to the recession.
With general government debt forecast for $95 billion at the end of 2009, the external debt of quasi-sovereign banks and corporations in mid-2009 was $50 billion and $86 billion, respectively, according to recent Moody’s estimates.
“It is conceivable that in extremis, the Russian government could be called upon to help cover or guarantee — to a greater or lesser extent — various ‘contingent liabilities’ in the banking system or at state-owned corporations,” Jonathan Schiffer, a senior credit officer for Moody’s wrote in a note.
Increasing optimism about an impending global recovery has made investors more adventurous, prompting them to invest their money in riskier, but higher-yielding currencies, such as the ruble.
The ruble has been on a seven-week rally, fueled by strong oil prices, with Urals crude rising above $75 on Monday.
Ulyukayev said the Central Bank has bought about $8 billion so far in October to stem the appreciation of the ruble.
The country may also record a small net capital inflow this month after an outflow of $31.5 billion in the third quarter, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach also said Monday.
The ruble closed at 35.80 against a euro-dollar basket the Central Bank uses for guiding the ruble’s nominal exchange rate policy, slightly stronger than Friday’s close at 35.88.
Against the dollar, the ruble closed at 29.30, some 13 kopeks stronger from closing Friday and not far off from the year’s high of 29.28 seen last Thursday.
Ulyukayev also said further lending rate cuts are not ruled out since October inflation is expected to be close to zero.
The Central Bank has already reduced the benchmark refinancing interest rate by 300 basis points to 10 percent, but that rate still remains far above the less than 1 percent seen in other Group of Eight countries, encouraging market players to carry trade deals.
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