The government is playing down the risks posed by a deteriorating global economy, underestimating the scale of capital flight from the country this year, according to Alfa Bank and UralSib Financial Corporation.
The only realistic way to improve net capital flows is to boost gross capital inflows, Natalia Orlova and Dmitry Dolgov, analysts at Alfa Bank, said in an e-mailed research note Tuesday, reiterating their forecast for $70 billion. The current lack of confidence in global markets is an obstacle to this scenario.
Deputy Economic Minister Andrei Klepach said outflows of net private capital may reach $50 billion in 2012, double the current prediction of $15 billion to $25 billion, Interfax reported Monday.
(Bloomberg)
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