U.S. President Donald Trump's reported suspension of military aid to Ukraine has led experts to warn that any disruption in the flow of American weapons to the front line would weaken Kyiv in its fight against Russia but is unlikely to lead to a “catastrophe.”
The move from the U.S. comes just days after a stunning public clash between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump, who earlier said Ukraine's leader should be "more appreciative" of U.S. support.
"The President has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well," a White House official told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution," the official added.
The order takes effect immediately, impacting over $1 billion worth of weapons and ammunition, including those already in the pipeline and on order, The New York Times reported. Trump's directive also freezes hundreds of millions of dollars in aid that Kyiv could use exclusively to purchase new military equipment from U.S. defense companies.
"Ukraine relies on U.S. support in many areas. Without it, Ukraine will likely have to retreat in some places faster than before. But I don’t think it will be catastrophic or that everything will collapse [on the front]," Ivan Stupak, a military expert and ex-officer of Ukraine’s SBU Security Service, told The Moscow Times.
Stupak said that Ukraine depends on U.S. support in various ways but warned against exaggerating its impact on the front.
“We rely on U.S. assistance in multiple areas, including air defense systems like the Patriot missiles. However, these are not primarily used on the front lines, they protect cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv from missile attacks,” Stupak said.
“If these missiles are no longer available, our infrastructure and civilian population will suffer — this means hundreds, possibly thousands, of civilian casualties among Ukrainians — but the military situation on the front lines will not change drastically," he added.
According to Stupak, the shortage of 155mm NATO-standard artillery shells is another pressing issue. While Ukraine has ramped up domestic production since a previous delay in U.S. aid in 2024, concerns remain about the reliability of locally manufactured shells.
Another critical area affected by the aid pause might be the supply of HIMARS rockets, Stupak noted. Yet he said that while these rocket systems played a significant role in the early months of the war, they have become vulnerable to drone attacks.
"For the past six months, there has been almost no public information of their use,” Stupak said.
Military analyst Alexei Alshansky also noted that another concern is communication infrastructure, particularly Ukraine’s reliance on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet system, which provides crucial internet connectivity to Kyiv and its military.
Ukraine's access to Starlink was brought up in discussions between Washington and Kyiv after Zelensky turned down a U.S. proposal on Ukraine's natural resources last month, Reuters reported, citing its sources.
“While Starlink is a private company and this is a private contract [with Ukraine], any disruption could pose serious challenges for Ukraine’s defense capabilities,” Alshansky told The Moscow Times.
Musk denied reports claiming the U.S. had threatened to halt Ukrainian access, but Kyiv said last month that Ukraine was exploring alternatives to Starlink.
Ukraine also said on Tuesday it was talking to European allies about military aid and did not rule out further negotiations with Washington after the U.S. decision to suspend support.
“We are discussing options with our European partners, and of course, we are not overlooking the possibility of negotiations with our American counterparts,” Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak wrote on X.
Alshansky also pointed out that while the suspension of U.S. aid is significant, it is difficult to assess its full impact on the front without Europe's response.
“If we have some clarity on what Europe is willing to do for Ukraine's security, then we can make calculations. For now, it's too early — any estimate would be speculation.”
AFP contributed reporting.
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