Seize the Day

Russia is always behind, and the usual reasons for this include geographical unwieldiness, the drag of the unassimilated past and top-down control that discourages innovation.

Like Peter the Great’s opening to the West, the Soviet drive to overtake and surpass the decadent West stemmed from the awareness of being dangerously behind. Now, it finally dawned on someone — probably President Dmitry Medvedev — that a Russia built on exporting energy and other natural resources did not have much of a future. And in the high-speed, high-tech 21st century, the future has a way of arriving much faster than expected. There clearly wasn’t enough capital and know-how inside the country to modernize the economy, so they would have to be attracted from outside, mainly from Europe and the United States, though Asia and Brazil also figure in.

According to a document leaked to Russian Newsweek, Russian foreign policy should now be reoriented to serve the interest of modernizing the economy. The document has a long, mind-numbing title reminiscent of the Soviet era: “Programs for the Effective and Systematic Implementation of Foreign Policy Factors for the Purposes of the Russian Federation’s Long-Term Development.” The word that jumps out from that bureaucratic miasma is “long-term.” Perhaps the ruling elite needed to stabilize the country, or perhaps they only wanted to rip off the country while the ripping was good. Whatever the case, the ruling elite showed little sign in the last decade of giving Russia’s long-term interests the slightest thought. Now, apparently, that is changing.

Nothing much may come of all this, of course. A few showy deals may be made before old habits and vested interests reassert themselves. But this may also prove a pivotal moment in history, a chance for Russia to shed its old skin. Two very large and important things must occur for any such change to take place.

First, Russia must realize that changes in foreign policy are not enough. Domestic change needs to happen as well. Foreign banks and companies may be offered advantageous terms, but if Moscow does not respect its own businesspeople and the laws on its own books, why should foreign firms believe that they will fare any better if push comes to shove? In that respect, former Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s hunger strike last week protesting pretrial detention for economic crimes was fortuitously timed with The New York Times’ article on the mortal dangers of Russian journalism. A reasonably free press and a reasonably free judiciary are not just humanist ideals but safeguards for commerce, providing predictability. This is probably more important in attracting capital than, say, backing the U.S. position on Iran. The old Russian saying, “Beat your own so others will fear you,” needs to be turned around: Respect your own so others will trust you.

The second factor that could make this a pivotal moment is for the United States and the West to realize the dimensions of the opportunity. That may have already begun. In the May/June issue of Foreign Affairs, Charles Kupchan argues in “NATO’s Final Frontier: Why Russia Should Join the Atlantic Alliance” that “including former adversaries in a postwar order is critical to the consolidation of great-power peace.” The problems are enormous here — including China’s reaction to a NATO reaching its borders — but so are the opportunities since NATO members must practice “democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law.”

Nothing is clear yet except that a moment of great opportunity is emerging. After swift, judicious analysis, it should be seized.