All but one of six candidates in the election in the "autonomous republic" favor independence for Crimea or union with Russia -- a nightmare prospect for authorities in Kiev.
Many members of Ukraine's parliament have demanded the cancellation of the vote in the picturesque but economically backward peninsula -- once the summer playground of Kremlin rulers. Some call for a state of emergency in the area.
"Abolishing the election could be an even greater threat to stability," said Yaroslav Mendusia, political adviser to Ukraine's President Leonid Kravchuk. "But if radical forces come to power it could be very dangerous for Crimea and Ukraine."
Tension in Crimea is rooted in the area's complicated ethnic make-up and history and in the fact that it has been hit even more acutely by Ukraine's economic collapse than other regions.
Of its 2.5 million people, 1.7 million are ethnic Russians. Many migrated to the area after Stalin banished hundreds of thousands of native Crimean Tatars to Central Asia.
About 280,000 Tatars have resettled in Crimea since the Soviet authorities allowed them to return in 1991.
Just over 600,000 Ukrainians live in the peninsula, held by Turkey until the 18th century when Russia took it over.
Under Soviet rule, Crimea was part of Russia until Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev gave it to Ukraine as a "gift" in 1954 to mark three centuries of Russian and Ukrainian unity. When Ukraine won independence, local Russians launched a separatist campaign. Plans to hold an independence referendum in August 1992 were called off when the authorities in Kiev granted the area broad autonomy.
Ukraine's hopes in the election are pinned on Nikolai Bagrov, head of Crimea's local parliament since 1991.
Bagrov, running neck-and-neck with two pro-Russian separatists, says Crimea should be a bridge between Russia and Ukraine but with its own economic and cultural policies.
"But no one can change borders," he says.
He faces lawyer Yury Meshkov, who says Crimea can hope for a prosperous future only if it reunites with Russia.
"If we return to the ruble zone, do away with customs barriers and rejoin Russia then your pensions and salaries will be 10 times higher," he told a rally.
The third contender, Communist leader Leonid Grach, tells voters that an independent Crimea will be the first step to reconstituting the Soviet Union.
He demands an end to "wild privatization" and a return to "people's property." His strongest support comes from pensioners, the most tragic victims of post-Soviet Ukraine's economic woes. They make up a third of the population.
Since campaigning began last month, a leading Tatar activist, a spokesman for the Black Sea fleet and a top member of the Ukrainian parliament have been murdered in what investigators say is political intrigue.
The most likely outcome is an inconclusive one, leading to a run-off between the top two candidates in a month's time.
But a last-minute wave of support for Bagrov is possible as pensioners swing to him out of fear that a nationalist upsurge would make their lot even worse.
"I will vote for Bagrov and ask others to do the same," said Mykola Ilnitsky, a Ukrainian and deputy head of one of Crimea's most influential companies. "All other alternatives mean civil war."
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