Last weekend, Chechen President Dzokhar Dudayev lost his last lowland stronghold, the town of Samashky, after a fierce battle. However, the "Afghan-type partisan war" that the Chechens have been promising since December has yet to begin.
The reason for this may be the background of the commander of the Chechen General Staff, Aslan Maskhadov, and of Dudayev himself. Both men were once fairly high-ranking officers in the Soviet military, but they were not involved in organizing Soviet-backed guerrilla campaigns in Asia or Africa. As a result, they were able to organize stubborn resistance against regular troops in Grozny in keeping with the recommendations of Soviet military textbooks, but they do not have the training for conducting effective partisan action. Russian commanders who specialize in fighting behind enemy lines and who are now in Chechnya cite the lack of training of the Chechen field commanders as the main reason for the failure of the guerrilla campaign.
In the meantime, since the fall of Grozny, Argun, Gudermes, Shali, Achkhoi-Martan and other towns and villages, Dudayev's army has begun to fall apart -- and this is not just propaganda floated around by official Russian press centers, but an actual fact. Many former fighters are returning to Grozny and other towns. A number of them are even entering the service of Solambek Khadzhiyev's pro-Moscow government, whose newly organized police force now consists of 1,600 men.
General Anatoly Antonov, the commander of the Russian Interior Ministry forces in Chechnya, told me that "in some cases we even allow former Chechen fighters to officially keep their weapons in order to defend their villages against Dudayev's supporters." However, the serial numbers of their Kalashnikovs and the names of those who have them have to be passed on to the Russian military authorities.It would seem that Russian officials are not overly concerned that former members of the Chechen resistance will once again take up arms against the federal authorities.
General Anatoly Kvashnin, commander of the North Caucasus Military District, told me: "Dudayev does not have an army. There are just a few groups of no more than 100 to 200 men. After what we saw in Grozny in January, this is nothing."
Kvashnin believes that the Chechens will not be able to organize another serious uprising for the next 20 or 30 years, when a new generation appears that did not see firsthand the carnage of Grozny. "Now the Chechens are burying their weapons for a future war. This is in their national character. Recently my troops captured a completely battle-ready German mortar from 1941 that the Chechens had buried during World War II for some future conflict."
Sergei Stepashin, the director of the Federal Counterintelligence Service told me in Grozny last week that "although we have not been able to completely seal off Chechnya's borders, Dudayev is not receiving any large arms shipments." Russia has agreements with the governments of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey saying that those countries will not help the Chechen separatists. There is also a tacit understanding with Iran, which has behaved "remarkably well" (according to Stepashin) during the Chechen conflict. Not a single foreign country, not even Jordan, which has an influential Chechen minority, is providing real help to Dudayev.
However, the Russian authorities understand that some of Dudayev's supporters, especially those who supported him before the invasion began, will continue to fight to the death. Russian special forces are preparing to wage a stiff anti-terrorist campaign in Chechnya for the next three to four years. One high-ranking agent of Russian intelligence told me: "We will act with the same decisiveness that the Israelis have shown. We have created a special unit of 30 to 40 men that is assigned to liquidate the Chechen leadership."
The same agent said that last week in the Dagestani region of Khasavyurt, the chief of Chechen security forces, Sultan Geliskhanov, had been "liquidated." A military source told me, though, that Geliskhanov was only wounded. He said, "First bring us his head, then we'll believe he's been killed."
The next names on the list are those of Chechen Vice President Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev and Dudayev. The Russians do not intend to negotiate with these men. Other supporters of Dudayev, it seems, still have a chance to reach an agreement with Moscow.
Pavel Felgenhauer is defense and national security editor for Segodnya.
The reason for this may be the background of the commander of the Chechen General Staff, Aslan Maskhadov, and of Dudayev himself. Both men were once fairly high-ranking officers in the Soviet military, but they were not involved in organizing Soviet-backed guerrilla campaigns in Asia or Africa. As a result, they were able to organize stubborn resistance against regular troops in Grozny in keeping with the recommendations of Soviet military textbooks, but they do not have the training for conducting effective partisan action. Russian commanders who specialize in fighting behind enemy lines and who are now in Chechnya cite the lack of training of the Chechen field commanders as the main reason for the failure of the guerrilla campaign.
In the meantime, since the fall of Grozny, Argun, Gudermes, Shali, Achkhoi-Martan and other towns and villages, Dudayev's army has begun to fall apart -- and this is not just propaganda floated around by official Russian press centers, but an actual fact. Many former fighters are returning to Grozny and other towns. A number of them are even entering the service of Solambek Khadzhiyev's pro-Moscow government, whose newly organized police force now consists of 1,600 men.
General Anatoly Antonov, the commander of the Russian Interior Ministry forces in Chechnya, told me that "in some cases we even allow former Chechen fighters to officially keep their weapons in order to defend their villages against Dudayev's supporters." However, the serial numbers of their Kalashnikovs and the names of those who have them have to be passed on to the Russian military authorities.It would seem that Russian officials are not overly concerned that former members of the Chechen resistance will once again take up arms against the federal authorities.
General Anatoly Kvashnin, commander of the North Caucasus Military District, told me: "Dudayev does not have an army. There are just a few groups of no more than 100 to 200 men. After what we saw in Grozny in January, this is nothing."
Kvashnin believes that the Chechens will not be able to organize another serious uprising for the next 20 or 30 years, when a new generation appears that did not see firsthand the carnage of Grozny. "Now the Chechens are burying their weapons for a future war. This is in their national character. Recently my troops captured a completely battle-ready German mortar from 1941 that the Chechens had buried during World War II for some future conflict."
Sergei Stepashin, the director of the Federal Counterintelligence Service told me in Grozny last week that "although we have not been able to completely seal off Chechnya's borders, Dudayev is not receiving any large arms shipments." Russia has agreements with the governments of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey saying that those countries will not help the Chechen separatists. There is also a tacit understanding with Iran, which has behaved "remarkably well" (according to Stepashin) during the Chechen conflict. Not a single foreign country, not even Jordan, which has an influential Chechen minority, is providing real help to Dudayev.
However, the Russian authorities understand that some of Dudayev's supporters, especially those who supported him before the invasion began, will continue to fight to the death. Russian special forces are preparing to wage a stiff anti-terrorist campaign in Chechnya for the next three to four years. One high-ranking agent of Russian intelligence told me: "We will act with the same decisiveness that the Israelis have shown. We have created a special unit of 30 to 40 men that is assigned to liquidate the Chechen leadership."
The same agent said that last week in the Dagestani region of Khasavyurt, the chief of Chechen security forces, Sultan Geliskhanov, had been "liquidated." A military source told me, though, that Geliskhanov was only wounded. He said, "First bring us his head, then we'll believe he's been killed."
The next names on the list are those of Chechen Vice President Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev and Dudayev. The Russians do not intend to negotiate with these men. Other supporters of Dudayev, it seems, still have a chance to reach an agreement with Moscow.
Pavel Felgenhauer is defense and national security editor for Segodnya.
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