Support The Moscow Times!

Export Ban Likely to Hurt Harvest

The country's grains harvest may drop below 70 million metric tons in 2012 if the grain-export ban remains in place, a decline of at least 16 percent from this year's forecast crop, SovEcon said.

Russia prohibited shipments from Aug. 15 until at least July 1 as drought wiped out more than a third of the country's crop last year, reducing the harvest to 60.9 million tons. Farmers may reap 83 million tons of grains this year as a further acute drought is unlikely, SovEcon managing director Andrei Sizov said Wednesday in an interview in New York.

Still, "there is a risk that if the export ban is in place and wheat prices on the local market are low, farmers may seriously reduce areas under wheat and, instead, sow more areas with sugar beets, sunflower and other oil seeds, as well as buckwheat," Sizov said.

The government will discuss the export ban after spring plantings, Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said April 28. The barley crop may be limited after the late onset of spring delayed planting, Sizov said.

"We don't expect any serious drought in Russia this year, it just can't happen for a third year in a row," Sizov said. Some Russian regions also suffered from dry conditions in 2009. "So far, the weather damaged the barley harvest outlook. The harvest will be low because of the late spring."

The area under wheat will likely fall this year, compared with 2010, SovEcon said on its web site Thursday, without giving a number. The area planted with sunflowers may match last year's record 7.15 million hectares, Sizov said May 3.

If the government lifts the export ban, Russia may export 10 million to 13 million tons of grain in 2011, mostly wheat, Sizov said.

Russia, hit by severe drought last summer, will see a "huge" recovery in grain crops this year as will its neighbor Ukraine, a senior economist and grain analyst at the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization, or FAO, said Thursday, Reuters reported.
Agricultural commodities markets need "some degree of control" to cap excessive speculation that fuels price volatility, FAO's Abdolreza Abbassian told Reuters Insider in an interview.

Sign up for our free weekly newsletter

Our weekly newsletter contains a hand-picked selection of news, features, analysis and more from The Moscow Times. You will receive it in your mailbox every Friday. Never miss the latest news from Russia. Preview
Subscribers agree to the Privacy Policy

A Message from The Moscow Times:

Dear readers,

We are facing unprecedented challenges. Russia's Prosecutor General's Office has designated The Moscow Times as an "undesirable" organization, criminalizing our work and putting our staff at risk of prosecution. This follows our earlier unjust labeling as a "foreign agent."

These actions are direct attempts to silence independent journalism in Russia. The authorities claim our work "discredits the decisions of the Russian leadership." We see things differently: we strive to provide accurate, unbiased reporting on Russia.

We, the journalists of The Moscow Times, refuse to be silenced. But to continue our work, we need your help.

Your support, no matter how small, makes a world of difference. If you can, please support us monthly starting from just $2. It's quick to set up, and every contribution makes a significant impact.

By supporting The Moscow Times, you're defending open, independent journalism in the face of repression. Thank you for standing with us.

Once
Monthly
Annual
Continue
paiment methods
Not ready to support today?
Remind me later.

Read more